Does This Video Show The Patriots Cheating Again???? (Clockgate)

                    In this video you will see that after Tom Brady seems to look up at someone and give the hand signal that referees give to reset the clock he immediately get 15 extra seconds. Now the camera doesn't show it but the claim is that the refs huddled after the incomplete pass to New England TE Gronk, Which if is the case the refs would of asked for the clock to be stopped and started on their signal. But with Brady seeming to give his own signal and getting what he wanted the Speculation remains with the 4 time Super Bowl cheating team ....sorry i meant winning. It honestly looks like a mess up by the time keepers, but with this teams history it makes you wonder ...... Here is the video.

Photos Of Jason Pierre-Paul's Hand Surfaces

                                   This image was just sent to me by one of UFO's contributers, Cory Moniz.
about one week after JPP tweeted a video of himself working out we have a still photo of JPP's Hand an it is not pretty.If and when he comes back we will see how it effects his ability.

Why aren't you playing real fantasy

It's halfway through the 4th quarter in a somewhat meaningless game between the Jets and the Jaguars. As expected,  they are both terrible and the game has almost no fantasy implication.  Ryan Fitzpatrick hits Jeff Cumberland for a first down as speedy linebacker Telvin Smith comes in to make the tackle.

And noone in your league got a single point. 

Your league is lame.  You play in a league with 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, a flex, a kicker and a defense.  You are stuck in the stone age. You are playing Oregon Trail while the big boys are playing Playstation 4.

"Nuh uh! It's interesting! We switched to ppr last year! "

Ugh

Why fight progress? Do you not know the NFL? Do you not watch the games?  Do you not know who Lavonte David is?

Casual fans with casual leagues dumb down the fantasy universe.  Half of the players in the NFL play defense.  HALF. And yet, you don't have those players on your roster.  Welcome to IDP my brothers and sisters.  Instantly,  you double your roster size, lowering the luck factor ten-fold. That Telvin Smith tackle got you a point because no play is worthless in an IDP league. Every game has meaning.  Every play has meaning. 

Don't you want to play in a fantasy universe where you can have JJ Watt on your roster? Where big play sacks get you amped up the way a 35 yard completion down the sideline does? 

Of course you do.  So get your ass on the phone and text your commissioner.  Tell him or her of their leagues lameness and tell em you got the cure. 

And for the love of god make the settings similar scoring to offense. Nothing is worse than a league finally making the jump to IDP only to see the players marginalized. A 10 tackle game should be worth as much a 100 yard rusher with a TD.

So get excited for every play,  every snap. Tackles for a loss are your new completion.  Or stay in the stone age. Get your fantasy knowledge from nfl network start em sit em.

So who's your backup?

       On the list of things one cares about when preparing for their fantasy season,  who will be your backup quarterback barely registers on the Richter scale. Drafters typically care about grabbing another beer more than grabbing a qb to sit on the bench. But with leagues becoming ever more competitive and intense, this small part of your team shouldn't be taken so lightly.  Every fantasy owner will need to play a backup qb at least one game a year during their starters bye. Why not do a little homework and grab the right guy?  How many of us have seen a player notice come bye week time that their backup qb has the same bye week as their starter. How many times have we seen the starters bye week come and your bench Q has to play one of the best defenses in the league that week? How many times has it happened to you?  Well, rest easy my friend,  UFO has you covered. 

  

          Some decisions are made for you in this life.  Owners of Sam Bradford and Tom Brady have little choice but to waste a bench spot on a Sanchez or Garapollo, but most choices are not so simple.  Obvious situations aside, choosing your understudy will mostly come down to schedule.  Finding the guy that has the sweetest matchup while your starter is on his bye is paramount. Bonus points if you can identify a guy that has a soft playoff schedule should your starter go down late or runs into a tough matchup come playoff time. Luckily for you we have broken it down by(e) week and done all the work for your lazy ass.
          The following is a week by week breakdown of which starter is on a bye and who should be available to draft in the last rounds of the draft to ride your bench. Assuming you are in a 12 or 14 man league, the bottom 15ish qbs (based on current fantasy pros ADP) will be who we are focusing on today as they will be the only ones available to hold your proverbial clipboard. If you are in a 10 man league exit out of this page and reevaluate your life.

Week 4: Marcus Mariota(21), Brady(10)/Garapollo

          As we discussed above, Brady owners will likely need to have Jimmy G on standby no matter what. I can't imagine you having a great year if you dedicate 3 roster spots to quarterbacks so Brady owners just pick up a streaming Qb for the week and then drop. Mariota is already in "backup quarterback" territory. Unless you are one of those NCAA fanatics who drafts these types of qbs early, and every league has one, he is already your backup. 

Best week 4 qbs: Jay Cutler (23), Sam Bradford (17)

Cutler is dynamite in week four. He's currently the 23rd qb off the board and plays the lowly Raiders at home. Bradford is affordable at 17th and plays the Skins who are just not that good. 

Week 5: Cam Newton(7), Ryan Tannehill(13), Teddy Bridgewater(15), Geno Smith*(UDFA)

Cam and Tannehill are truly the only ones in starter territory, but I'd bet Teddy cracks that top 14 by draft time. This year is very muddled in the middle of the drafts. 

Best week 5 qbs: Joe Flacco (16), Sam Bradford(17), Jameis Winston(19), Nick Foles(24)

Nick Foles is your target here as he plays Green Bay in what will likely be a high scoring affair. The Rams will likely struggle to keep up with Rodger's n Company's high powered offense and this means pass pass pass for the Rams. Flacco vs Cleveland at home, Bradford vs the Saints and Winston vs Jacksonville are also good, albeit slightly more expensive options than Foles.

Week 6: Tony Romo(8), Derek Carr(22), Nick Foles(24), Jameis Winston(19)

Another week where the quarterbacks on byes are likely already to be your backups anyway, but for you Romo owners this week is yours to pay attention to. 

Best week 6 Qbs: 

Jay Cutler(23), Mallet/Hoyer(UDFA), Sam Bradford(17), Geno Smith(UDFA)

One of the rare occasions where I would ever recommend the likes of Smith or whoever wins the job in Houston. For their price you could draft them dead last or not at all. Playing against Jacksonville and Washington, respectively, you could even not draft a backup at all and simply drop a kicker or another useless player and just grab one for the week. Again we see Bradford with a decent matchup against the Football Giants of New York. Cutler against the Lions is also a decent bet. 

Week 7: Jay Cutler(23), Andy Dalton(27), Peyton Manning(3), Aaron Rodgers(2)

Best qbs week 7: Matt Cassel(28), Jameis Winston(19), Nick Foles(24)

This is not a great week if your starter is on a bye. The matchups are not great for the later round qbs but there is still some hope. Foles rears his goofy head again vs the Browns while Winston plays the Skins. Cassel, or whoever the fuck is slinging the rock by then gets to play Jacksonville. My only gripe with the Bills qb against Jax is it is in London and we've seen some bad football overseas. 

Week 8: Matt Cassel(28), Blake Bortles(29), Sam Bradford(17), Robert Griffin(26)

A likely breather for most players as none of these quarterbacks are really in top 12-14 territory. With the exception of Bradford, none of these players will ever creep into that area of any draft. If you have the unfortunate situation of needing a qb this week,you are likely going to suck this year, but here are a few to choose from anyway. 

If you absolutely have to: Geno Smith(UDFA), Jay Cutler(23), Jameis Winston(19)

Cutler is at home against the Vikes, Tampa Bay gets Atlanta and Geno Smith gets the Raiders. None particularly jump off the page so go with Cutler at draft time or don't draft a Q at all and stream either Geno or Jameis

Week 9: Carson Palmer(25), Joe Flacco(16), Matt Stafford(12), Mallet/Hoyer(UDFA), Alex Smith(20), Russel Wilson(4)

It's not the best week for owners of Stafford and Wilson as the options out there are not fantastic. For owners of the formerly mentioned, check out these week 9 options. 

Best qbs for week 9: Geno Smith(UDFA), Jay Cutler(23), Nick Foles(24)

Smith lining up with Jacksonville is really the only bad matchup on paper. Cutler landing San Diego and Foles vs Minnesota are your consolation prizes. 

Week 10: Matt Ryan(9), Andrew Luck(1), Philip Rivers(14), Colin Kaepernick(18)

The Bye Weeks are coming to an end and as such there are more options out there for the picking. Luck and Ryan owners have a few options to choose from. 

Best options for week 10: Nick Foles(24), Jay Cutler(23), Joe Flacco(16)

Foles and Cutler square off in what will likely be a decent matchup for either quarterback but the winner here is Joe Flacco. Joe Cool draws Jacksonville and will probably wipe the floor with them. The only big fear here is the Ravens would just run the ball once getting a lead. 

Week 11: Josh Mccown, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger 

Its a pretty meh week for owners of Brees and Big Ben but there's always some option to choose from. Being as though its the last week for byes I wanted to come up with something witty here, but then decided to just go with the list. 

Best options for week 12: Marcus Mariota(21), Blake Bortles(29), Jay Cutler(23)

Bortles and Mariota will be squaring off in what will likely be an awful game with two terrible teams long out of contention. If either quarterback shows signs of putting together a decent offense over the course of the year grab them for the week and pray if they are your only option. Once again Cutler is our winner here as he draws Denver . Chicago's D will likely not slow down Denver worth a damn and Cutler will be in full blown garbage time mode by halftime. Bonus points if Chicago is anywhere near contention at this point in the year. 

          Well there you have it guys, a week by week breakdown of who is on a bye and who you should target as your backup Q. I'm sure you noticed the same thing I noticed as I was typing up this article; Cutler and Bradford have some sweet matchups practically every week. For those of you who do not grab a top tier QB and decide to dance with lesser options, one could certainly do worse than grabbing Smokin Jay or Bradford, or both. Pair either one with a good but not great QB and you might be able to find yourself a good season in there somewhere. 

          

Top 5 Worst QBS To Win SB / Top 5 Best QBS TO Never Win SB

                           So here you are again arguing with your buddy about who's team has a better QB, You are a Broncos fan he is a Patriots fan. Most ignorant people will have you believe its cut and dry, Brady has 4 rings Manning only has 1 ring so clearly Brady is better, Right? Well pump your brakes that is not remotely true. When it comes to Super Bowl wins, its the number one thing any football player or fan wants for their team or themselves. But lets face it no one player in football has enough power to win or lose a game all by themselves. There are tons of variables that go into every single football game. Whether it is which team has a run game or which team has a better defense or if a team simply has Lady Luck on their side, it is not so cut and dry to just go off of Rings won. The best any only way to determine how a player compares to another is what each player has personally accomplished, seeing how they do not play all 53 positions on a team, or coaches the team, Personal stats are all you can go off of to get a true idea of who plays any position better than another.

                           For instance if your team has a mediocre QB that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in a season but the team came together and won a Superbowl vs a QB who had a stellar year number 1 QB rating but the team as whole just couldn't pull it together when they needed to, do you really think the QB whose team won the Super Bowl is better than the QB that out played ever other QB that season? Of course not. No one man wins or loses a game. Football is the true definition of a team sport every piece needs to work together for greatness, and unfortunately some of the greatest player that have ever graced the field were not as fortunate as some of the worst players to ever play to have a well rounded team to go all the way.

Tools For Measuring Quarterback Skill & Ability

                            We are going to stick with the Quarterback position seeing as its the number one most debated position in the league. We are not going to talk about the intangibles that are completely out of the Quarterback's hands, such as win loss records since we already established no one man can lose or win a game. We are strictly going to stick to the facts, Who plays the position better according to official stats kept by the NFL.

1. Quarterback Passing Rating - one of the most accurate stats in the NFL for measuring how well a person plays the Quarterback position. The term is defined as such "Passer rating (also known as quarterback rating, QB rating, or passing efficiency in college football) is a measure of the performance of passers, primarily quarterbacks, in American football and Canadian football." The NFL gets the rating from a series of statistics, Completion percentage, TD - INT Ratio, Attempts and so on. This is the overall standard on who plays the position the best and there is really zero argument to discredit it. The only thing you would want to point out is a QB that has a better career QB rating vs another, is the amount of years played. If a QB who only played 4 season has a slightly better rating than a QB that played 14 years you can have an argument that the 4 year sample is not enough to go off of especially if the QB was a starter vs not a starter his whole career.
2. TD - INT Ratio - This one is huge in my book if you have a QB throwing way more TDs than INTs you have a skilled quarterback and this stat can determine which of the QBs can make better decisions and even use the imaginary clutch term if you would like.
3. Completion % - This is real simple too. Is you QB an efficient passer or is he just throwing it up and praying for the best. This stat tells you it all in black and white.
4. Yards Per Play - Now this one can be a little bit iffy just because if you have a QB like Brees who is just dumping it off to his Running Back and gaining 80 yds vs a Romo hitting Dez 60 yds down the field the stats are a bit skewed but can be corrected by viewing these stats vs average YAC (yards after contact) of their receivers. None the less big plays are a sign of a great player. 

                             All in all, every one of these stats are important and 2-4 are all factors in Quarterback Passing Rating. Leaving QBR as the official stat of the NFL to determine who has the most skill and plays the absolute best at the Quarterback position. Most ignorant people will still argue that it doesn't matter though, all that matters is the championship, and i agree to an extent. We all know the only reason these guys play is to be the best and the money of course. But it does matter when you want to see who plays the position better. Rings do not mean you play the position better than another and there are many players who have proven it. Here are the 5 worst QBS to win a Super Bowl and a few of their career stats, proving just because you have a ring or two doesn't mean you are good.

TOP 5 Worst Quarterbacks To Win a Super Bowl

5. Eli Manning

2 Rings - Career QBR - 82.4 - Career TD - 259 / INT - 185

4. Ken Stabler

1 Ring - Career QBR - 75.3 - Career TD - 194 / INT -222


3. Jim Plunkett

2 Rings - Career QBR - 67.5 - Career TD - 164 / INT - 198

2. Trent Dilfer

1 Ring - Career QBR - 70.2 - Career TD - 113 / INT - 129

1. Joe Nameth

1 Ring - Career QBR - 65.5 - Career TD - 173 / INT - 220

                       Luckily for these guys they had great rounded teams to carry them far in their career in some cases carry them twice to the promised land. Not discrediting their rings just saying clearly they are not the focal of why they made it and won. On the flip side you have some amazing players that have done everything they can to make it all the way but the teams they are with were just not good enough to cut it, So here are the top 5 QBS to never win a Ring.

Top 5 Quarterbacks To Never Win A Super Bowl

5. Matt Ryan

Playoff Record W-1 / L-4 - Career QBR - 91.1 - Career TD - 181 / INT - 91

4. Donovan Mcnabb

Playoff Record W-9 / L-7 - Career QBR - 85.6 - Career TD - 234 / INT - 117

3. Jim Kelly

Playoff Record W-9 / L-8 - Career QBR - 84.4 - Career TD - 237 / INT - 175

2. Dan Marino

Playoff Record W- 8 / L - 10 - Career QBR - 86.4 - Career TD - 420 / INT - 252

1. Tony Romo

Playoff Record W-2 / L-4 - Career QBR - 97.6 - Career TD - 242 / Career INT - 110

                                 Que the haters, I know the haters will be crawling out of the wood work seeing Romo number 1 on the top 5 not to win, but 2nd all time QB rating in history is nothing to sneeze at considering how bad the rest of his team has been the majority of his career especially his defense. But just like the rest of the guys on this list he has done everything possible to win the big one but it goes back to being a team game. If you wish to be foolish enough to say any of the 5 from the list of ring winners is better than the 5 not to win that's your opinion, but its not fact. Skill is not measured by Rings its measured by performance and these 5 guys preformed at the elite level every chance they have had. But haters just keep in mind fact outweigh opinions everyday.

                                         
                     

WHY TOM BRADY AND THE PATRIOTS GOT OFF LIGHT FOR CHEATING

              Ok first off I am not going to pretend to be a Tom Brady fan, But I'm not what Patriot's fans call anyone who is not in support of Brady, a "HATER." I am simply expressing my UNCENSORED OPINION on this matter. Tom and the Patriots should be thankful that a 4 game suspension , loss of 2 draft picks, and a slap on the wrist fine was all they got. I know what you Brady supporters are saying, "Its too much he go the same suspension as Greg Hardy." Well they are wrong. Hardy got a 10 game suspension after being forced to sit for a year, a year alone was way too much. He should of got time served and a fine in all reality seeing how he was innocent in the US legal system. But we are not here to talk about that. We are here to talk about Brady. 

              The entire Patriots organization lost all credibility with this scandal. They have lied and tried to manipulate every aspect of this thing. I do not believe Brady needed to cheat against the Colts, I have my bet slip to prove it. I do not even think him deflating the balls helped them win I had the Pats destroying the Colts before and was not surprised when they did. But the fact remains Brady did have the balls deflated and it is cheating no matter how you try to defend him. Que Pat's fans "Wells report is bias, they have no proof." Well in US law destroying possible evidence (His Cell Phone) is Essentially Proof of guilt. According to US LAW "Spoilation of Evidence" in most cases is enough proof. 

"The theory of the spoliation inference is that when a party destroys evidence, it may be reasonable to infer that the party had "consciousness of guilt" or other motivation to avoid the evidence."

               So yes that is enough proof to uphold the suspension. But Brady just needs to admit he cheated and count his blessing. If the NFL was really as worried about the integrity of the game as it claims to be in this matter, then they should of corrected this right when it happened. In the NFL rule book itself the punishment handed to Brady is outlined to the T. But it should of and could of been much worse for the Patriots. According to NFL Rule 17 "Emergencies, Unfair Acts" Article 3 it clearly states what the full punishment should have been.

"PENALTIES FOR UNFAIR ACTS Article 3 The Commissioner’s powers under this Section 2 include the imposition of monetary fines and draft-choice forfeitures, suspension of persons involved in unfair acts, and, if appropriate, the reversal of a game’s result or the rescheduling of a game, either from the beginning or from the point at which the extraordinary act occurred. In the event of rescheduling a game, the Commissioner will be guided by the procedures specified in Rule 17, Section 1, Articles 5 through 11, above. In all cases, the Commissioner will conduct a full investigation, including the opportunity for hearings, use of game videotape, and any other procedure he deems appropriate." - NFL RULE 17

               I don't think they reversed the game because lets face it the Colts stood zero chance with or without cheating but the simple fact Brady did something against the rules here, Hence why he destroyed his phone in an attempted cover up. But he should just save face at this point admit it and be happy the commissioner didn't follow the rule to the T. The punishment is within reason and just in all aspects according to NFL rules that Brady agreed to follow. SO GET OVER IT BRADY CHEATED. LETS GET BACK TO FOOTBALL

Top 5 Running Backs To Avoid In 2015

                      Yes it is finally that time of the year, football season is rearing up we are about a week away from preseason and the beginning of most fantasy drafts. If you are looking to get the most out of your fantasy draft this season, and try to avoid being the guy that picks a bust with your top 5 pick in your draft here is some advice on some of the higher ranked running backs in the league you may want to avoid.



5. ADRIAN PETERSON - ADP 2.0

              Now do not get me wrong I think AP is a beast, but with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 2.0 is not what you want to pay for him right now. In 2014 Mr. Peterson had the very same ADP and yours truly ended up taking him 2nd overall in my draft going against my gut feeling to draft Demarco Murray, and after 1 mediocre game from AP i found myself without a RB 1 for the rest of the season after he was not allowed to play after child abuse allegations. Now not saying he will have some kind of allegations come up again preventing him to be relevant, but after a year off and being another year older and with the 24th ranked offensive line blocking for him you got to wonder how he is still projected as the 2nd overall pick. Given the choice at 2nd overall again this year i would skip right over him and go with Eddie Lacy. I would expect AP to be a round 2 pick ALL DAY.



4. ARIAN FOSTER - ADP 7.0

              Looking at Foster's career, He has been quite consistent. Getting 1200+ yards 4 times out of his 6 years in the league. But this is now his 7th year in the league and 3rd year with the dreaded Hammy issue. We have seen some amazingly great and consistent players lose it all when the Hammy issue comes up. So with him battling this injury i would expect a bit of a drop in his work load from last year (260 attempts in 13 games) and become a candidate for splitting a bit more with Alfred Blue. I would suggest passing on Arian for CJ Anderson....and if for some reason Lynch is still there ...you got yourself a steal.



3. MATT FORTE - ADP 7.5 

       Now the avoidance of  Forte is not fully his fault. He is probably the most constant active RB in the league right now . He has run for just about 1000 yards every year of his 7 year career. Two things about him personally about him is what worries me, his age and workload. Hate to say it but hes due for an injury not saying its a guarantee he just has history against him right now. But if he is somehow able to avoid injury 2 other things worry me his 22nd ranked offensive line and his terrible quarterback. So would say "good their QB stinks, so they will run more." But that is not the case in Chicago they seem to give Cutler the ball more and more allowing him to put them in huge holes and then abandoning the running game and then giving all the work to the Garbage Time King. This year I would avoid forte and maybe take a shot with Lesean McCoy in Rex's Bills.




2. JEREMY HILL - ADP 10.5

         Jeremy is a 2nd year guy who looks like he has a promising future with some quick feet expect big things from him .... Sound familiar? Well its the same exact thing they were saying about Gio Bernard not a year ago. Granted Gio got hurt and Jeremy made his most of his shot but don't expect the Bengals to not include Gio at all in this offense. I SMELL COMMITTEE. Most likely a 50/50 split here. So if you are looking for a starting RB Cincinnati is not the place to look. I would suggest looking at the rookie Gordon at this draft position. Me personally i traded Hill in my dynasty league.




1. DEMARCO MURRAY - ADP 8.8 


       Last season everyone wanted to blame the refs or Bryant for losing against the Packers in the divisional round, But in all reality the loss stemmed from yet another fumble from Murray. Murray caught a case of the fumbles in his career best season in 2014. Murray fumbled a total of 6 times, worse he lost all 6 of the fumbles. He fumbled one less time last season than he did the rest of his career. With that being said he also had a career high 392 attempts in the regular season plus another 44 in the post season. There have been only 5 other running backs to have 400 plus attempts in a season and only one who continued with good production the following year, Eric Dickerson. Demarco has a few other things against him as well heading in to the 2015 season. He no longer has the cowboys offensive line. Not saying the Eagle's line is bad, but I am saying they are not the Dallas O-line. He also has competition Ryan Mathews is just like Murray he has been battling injuries his  whole career but both can be productive when healthy so a committee here is very likely.

Lastly Chip Kelly lets face it this is the NFL and the NFL has prove to Chip this is not college and Murray and Mathews have both proven to not be able to stay healthy in regular offenses so an upbeat faster offense may be detrimental to both. I would suggest skipping right over Murray and aiming for McCoy or even Gordon








Good luck to all you Fantasy owners and hopefully the advice given here today will prevent you from being that guy that the rest of the owners ridicule over your terrible first round pick.

Fantasy Football Players To Avoid In 2015

                   It was summer 2014, the sun was shining, the kids drank soda pop, and Montee Ball was being drafted in the middle of the first round. There I was at ninth thinking I could be one of the lucky ones. Those were my intentions going in anyway. Come draft time it turned out I was more concerned with craft beer than the league I had gotten thrown into. I committed the cardinal sin of not knowing the draft client and suddenly it was my pick. With no queue set up and seconds to go I panicked, scrolled at the next 5 visible guys in the window of auto-rankings, and chose. Minutes later I was cursing my friends name as I saw him pick the still available Montee Ball.

 This trip down memory lane teaches us two crucial lessons. 1: Always know your draft client and test for compatibility BEFORE you draft. And 2: The only thing as important as drafting the right guy, is avoiding the wrong one. Spending expensive draft capital on a player who puts up mediocre numbers hurts your team. Worse yet, as my friend found out, spending a high pick on a guy who does nothing is a season killer. Demarco Murray ended up carrying me to a league championship, while Ball left my friend in relative obscurity. Of course this was unbelievable luck on my part, but had I of been thinking with avoidance strategy, I never would have attempted to torpedo my season in the first place.

 Enter 2015. Lesean McCoy's line is worse, Brandon Marshall is a Jet, and more than a few of leagues best running backs are all dangerously close to 30. Because it is so often a make or break decision, today we will go over the choices available to us in the first round. It's easy to pass on Maclin in the 4th or Peyton in the 3rd, but its bold to choose from the cream of the crop and say nay.

Listed below is the first round with potential red flags as it stands on June 24th in 12 man standard Yahoo leagues.

Name                                Potential Red Flags

Jamaal Charles                 Nagging injuries in 2014, age

Eddie Lacy                       Concussion history, time split with Starks toward middle of last season

Adrian Peterson                Rust, age

Marshawn Lynch              Heavy workload in past, violent runner, age

Le'Veon Bell                     Suspension history

Antonio Brown                 None

Rob Gronkowski               Injury history

Dez Bryant                        Contract issues

Odell Beckham Jr              Sophomore regression, hamstrings

Matt Forte                          Age, less receptions with loss of Trestman

Demarco Murray                Incredible previous year workload, injury history

Andrew Luck                     Often sacked/hit

 The world needs another Demarco Murray workload article about as much as it needs a third World War, so let's go in a different direction. Lets be daring. Let's select Odell Beckham Jr. Why? As I will explain, OBJ was the perfect player at the perfect time on the perfect team. I'm not trying to take anything away from the man, I just don't think he'll perform up to his lofty draft position, and that you can get similar production out of your second round pick.

The Perfect Team

 The 2014 Giants were flat out awful. Compiling a 6-10 record, five of those wins came against the dregs of the league. Bad teams fall behind early and generally abandon the running game. This was very much the case for Eli Manning who broke his career high with 601 attempts. The G-men were near the bottom of nearly every defensive statistic one can take pride in, and couldn't move the ball on the ground. Their dismal 3.6 yards per attempt was 30th in the league. Their terrible rushing and worse defense set up beautifully for Odell, as he was the only talented offensive player left on a team that was constantly falling behind. Reuben Randle did not play well and Larry Donnell cemented his flash in the pan status. The addition of Shane Vereen should help as Eli will have a talented pass catching HB (and underrated runner) out of the backfield. Factor in the return of Victor Cruz and one can foresee the massive targets for Odell leveling out to normal.

The Perfect Player

 The Dez's and Calvin's of the world amaze us year in and year out. Teams know they are good, gameplan around them, and yet somehow they still produce. As an unknown commodity, Beckham benefited greatly. Cue the sophomore slump. Teams know who he is now and will gameplan around him specifically. When defensive coordinators have a whole year of film on you, its incredibly how they can use it against you.  So you're thinking, well why didn't teams gameplan around him once they saw what he could do? I'm glad you asked. Let's take a look at his production starting in week 5, his first game.

Week 5 vs Atlanta 4-44-0 – A pretty normal game

Week 6 vs Philadelphia 2-28-0 – Non factor

Week 7 vs Dallas 4-34-2 – The touchdowns are impressive, but still little jumps off the page

Bye

 So, heading into week nine, coordinators have little reason to believe he is a game changing offensive juggernaut. The Dallas touchdowns aside, he has whimpered to begin his NFL career. Dallas' dirty secret from 2015 should also be mentioned at this point in time, the defense was terrible. How terrible? In 2013 the Cowboys defense was described as “historically bad” by writers all over the football universe. That defense gave up 6.1 yards per play. The 2014 division winning Cowboys? 5.8 yards per play. The reason this went largely unnoticed is solely because the Cowboys managed to keep their defense off the field. A top 3 time of possession stat (21 seconds behind #1) had them cooling off on the sidelines.  After beating this awful unit for two touchdowns on a modest 34 yards, Beckham slides into his bye week to rest those hammys.

The Perfect Time

 Our sneaky OBJ slides out of the bye supposedly healthy and ready to go. As we discussed above, coordinators still have little reason to focus an entire gameplan around this young man. For the rest of the season he would light a fire on the NFL world, and win many a fantasy player his or her championship. Lets look at how he did it

Week 9 vs Indianapolis 8-156-0

Week 10 vs Seattle 7-108-0

Week 11 vs San Fran 6-93-0

 We start off with a shootout versus Indianapolis which saw the Giants lose 40-24. OBJ performs well in what would turn out to be a 64 point slugfest, illustrating the above narrative perfectly. He racked up tons of yards in awful games by the Giants. Against Seattle he plays well, that is a great line against that team, and the same can be said for the game against San Francisco.

Week 12 vs Dallas 10-146-2

Week 13 vs Jacksonville 7-90-0

Week 14 vs Tennessee 11-130-1

Week 15 vs Washington 12-143-3

Week 16 vs St. Louis 8-148-2

  From week 12 on is where the legend was truly made and the main reason I'm ducking him this year. Again we see him annihilate a bad Cowboys defense. For this we cant knock him, after all he'll see them twice next year, but the remaining games must be taken with a grain of salt. He faces all bad teams that had been knocked out for the year and had nothing to play for. Jacksonville and Tennessee ended at 3-13 and 2-14, with the 26th and 27th overall defenses. Washington stank up the NFC East with a 4-12 record and, you guessed it, gave up a whopping 5.8 yards per play (where did we hear that number before?). The Rams hardly played better giving up 5.6 themselves. The point being that it is highly unlikely that he will see such a lucky stretch of awful teams again. A quick glance at this seasons final six games tells us the same.

 There is a very good chance that Beckham will play well this year, and I'm not here to disagree. I'm recommending avoiding him based on how fortunate his situation was last year and where he is going in this years drafts.  If you're drafting late middle the likes of Julio, Calvin, and Jordy could all be available with your second pick. Do you truly believe the second year man will outpace the likes of that trio? Is it possible that the legend of OBJ was written on the backs of the worst teams and defenses in the NFL at a most memorable time? And finally, lets not forget that he already missed this years mini camp with yet another hamstring injury. Seasoned players will tell you just how nagging and reoccurring those can be. If they act up this year, you just might be telling the guy behind you who grabbed him about the legend of Miles Austin.