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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

WHY TOM BRADY AND THE PATRIOTS GOT OFF LIGHT FOR CHEATING



              Ok first off I am not going to pretend to be a Tom Brady fan, But I'm not what Patriot's fans call anyone who is not in support of Brady, a "HATER." I am simply expressing my UNCENSORED OPINION on this matter. Tom and the Patriots should be thankful that a 4 game suspension , loss of 2 draft picks, and a slap on the wrist fine was all they got. I know what you Brady supporters are saying, "Its too much he go the same suspension as Greg Hardy." Well they are wrong. Hardy got a 10 game suspension after being forced to sit for a year, a year alone was way too much. He should of got time served and a fine in all reality seeing how he was innocent in the US legal system. But we are not here to talk about that. We are here to talk about Brady. 

              The entire Patriots organization lost all credibility with this scandal. They have lied and tried to manipulate every aspect of this thing. I do not believe Brady needed to cheat against the Colts, I have my bet slip to prove it. I do not even think him deflating the balls helped them win I had the Pats destroying the Colts before and was not surprised when they did. But the fact remains Brady did have the balls deflated and it is cheating no matter how you try to defend him. Que Pat's fans "Wells report is bias, they have no proof." Well in US law destroying possible evidence (His Cell Phone) is Essentially Proof of guilt. According to US LAW "Spoilation of Evidence" in most cases is enough proof. 

"The theory of the spoliation inference is that when a party destroys evidence, it may be reasonable to infer that the party had "consciousness of guilt" or other motivation to avoid the evidence."

               So yes that is enough proof to uphold the suspension. But Brady just needs to admit he cheated and count his blessing. If the NFL was really as worried about the integrity of the game as it claims to be in this matter, then they should of corrected this right when it happened. In the NFL rule book itself the punishment handed to Brady is outlined to the T. But it should of and could of been much worse for the Patriots. According to NFL Rule 17 "Emergencies, Unfair Acts" Article 3 it clearly states what the full punishment should have been.

"PENALTIES FOR UNFAIR ACTS Article 3 The Commissioner’s powers under this Section 2 include the imposition of monetary fines and draft-choice forfeitures, suspension of persons involved in unfair acts, and, if appropriate, the reversal of a game’s result or the rescheduling of a game, either from the beginning or from the point at which the extraordinary act occurred. In the event of rescheduling a game, the Commissioner will be guided by the procedures specified in Rule 17, Section 1, Articles 5 through 11, above. In all cases, the Commissioner will conduct a full investigation, including the opportunity for hearings, use of game videotape, and any other procedure he deems appropriate." - NFL RULE 17

               I don't think they reversed the game because lets face it the Colts stood zero chance with or without cheating but the simple fact Brady did something against the rules here, Hence why he destroyed his phone in an attempted cover up. But he should just save face at this point admit it and be happy the commissioner didn't follow the rule to the T. The punishment is within reason and just in all aspects according to NFL rules that Brady agreed to follow. SO GET OVER IT BRADY CHEATED. LETS GET BACK TO FOOTBALL

Monday, July 27, 2015

Top 5 Running Backs To Avoid In 2015



                      Yes it is finally that time of the year, football season is rearing up we are about a week away from preseason and the beginning of most fantasy drafts. If you are looking to get the most out of your fantasy draft this season, and try to avoid being the guy that picks a bust with your top 5 pick in your draft here is some advice on some of the higher ranked running backs in the league you may want to avoid.



5. ADRIAN PETERSON - ADP 2.0
              Now do not get me wrong I think AP is a beast, but with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 2.0 is not what you want to pay for him right now. In 2014 Mr. Peterson had the very same ADP and yours truly ended up taking him 2nd overall in my draft going against my gut feeling to draft Demarco Murray, and after 1 mediocre game from AP i found myself without a RB 1 for the rest of the season after he was not allowed to play after child abuse allegations. Now not saying he will have some kind of allegations come up again preventing him to be relevant, but after a year off and being another year older and with the 24th ranked offensive line blocking for him you got to wonder how he is still projected as the 2nd overall pick. Given the choice at 2nd overall again this year i would skip right over him and go with Eddie Lacy. I would expect AP to be a round 2 pick ALL DAY.



4. ARIAN FOSTER - ADP 7.0

              Looking at Foster's career, He has been quite consistent. Getting 1200+ yards 4 times out of his 6 years in the league. But this is now his 7th year in the league and 3rd year with the dreaded Hammy issue. We have seen some amazingly great and consistent players lose it all when the Hammy issue comes up. So with him battling this injury i would expect a bit of a drop in his work load from last year (260 attempts in 13 games) and become a candidate for splitting a bit more with Alfred Blue. I would suggest passing on Arian for CJ Anderson....and if for some reason Lynch is still there ...you got yourself a steal.



3. MATT FORTE - ADP 7.5 



       Now the avoidance of  Forte is not fully his fault. He is probably the most constant active RB in the league right now . He has run for just about 1000 yards every year of his 7 year career. Two things about him personally about him is what worries me, his age and workload. Hate to say it but hes due for an injury not saying its a guarantee he just has history against him right now. But if he is somehow able to avoid injury 2 other things worry me his 22nd ranked offensive line and his terrible quarterback. So would say "good their QB stinks, so they will run more." But that is not the case in Chicago they seem to give Cutler the ball more and more allowing him to put them in huge holes and then abandoning the running game and then giving all the work to the Garbage Time King. This year I would avoid forte and maybe take a shot with Lesean McCoy in Rex's Bills.




2. JEREMY HILL - ADP 10.5

         Jeremy is a 2nd year guy who looks like he has a promising future with some quick feet expect big things from him .... Sound familiar? Well its the same exact thing they were saying about Gio Bernard not a year ago. Granted Gio got hurt and Jeremy made his most of his shot but don't expect the Bengals to not include Gio at all in this offense. I SMELL COMMITTEE. Most likely a 50/50 split here. So if you are looking for a starting RB Cincinnati is not the place to look. I would suggest looking at the rookie Gordon at this draft position. Me personally i traded Hill in my dynasty league.




1. DEMARCO MURRAY - ADP 8.8 


       Last season everyone wanted to blame the refs or Bryant for losing against the Packers in the divisional round, But in all reality the loss stemmed from yet another fumble from Murray. Murray caught a case of the fumbles in his career best season in 2014. Murray fumbled a total of 6 times, worse he lost all 6 of the fumbles. He fumbled one less time last season than he did the rest of his career. With that being said he also had a career high 392 attempts in the regular season plus another 44 in the post season. There have been only 5 other running backs to have 400 plus attempts in a season and only one who continued with good production the following year, Eric Dickerson. Demarco has a few other things against him as well heading in to the 2015 season. He no longer has the cowboys offensive line. Not saying the Eagle's line is bad, but I am saying they are not the Dallas O-line. He also has competition Ryan Mathews is just like Murray he has been battling injuries his  whole career but both can be productive when healthy so a committee here is very likely.

Lastly Chip Kelly lets face it this is the NFL and the NFL has prove to Chip this is not college and Murray and Mathews have both proven to not be able to stay healthy in regular offenses so an upbeat faster offense may be detrimental to both. I would suggest skipping right over Murray and aiming for McCoy or even Gordon








Good luck to all you Fantasy owners and hopefully the advice given here today will prevent you from being that guy that the rest of the owners ridicule over your terrible first round pick.











Friday, July 24, 2015

Fantasy Football Players To Avoid In 2015




                   It was summer 2014, the sun was shining, the kids drank soda pop, and Montee Ball was being drafted in the middle of the first round. There I was at ninth thinking I could be one of the lucky ones. Those were my intentions going in anyway. Come draft time it turned out I was more concerned with craft beer than the league I had gotten thrown into. I committed the cardinal sin of not knowing the draft client and suddenly it was my pick. With no queue set up and seconds to go I panicked, scrolled at the next 5 visible guys in the window of auto-rankings, and chose. Minutes later I was cursing my friends name as I saw him pick the still available Montee Ball.
 This trip down memory lane teaches us two crucial lessons. 1: Always know your draft client and test for compatibility BEFORE you draft. And 2: The only thing as important as drafting the right guy, is avoiding the wrong one. Spending expensive draft capital on a player who puts up mediocre numbers hurts your team. Worse yet, as my friend found out, spending a high pick on a guy who does nothing is a season killer. Demarco Murray ended up carrying me to a league championship, while Ball left my friend in relative obscurity. Of course this was unbelievable luck on my part, but had I of been thinking with avoidance strategy, I never would have attempted to torpedo my season in the first place.
 Enter 2015. Lesean McCoy's line is worse, Brandon Marshall is a Jet, and more than a few of leagues best running backs are all dangerously close to 30. Because it is so often a make or break decision, today we will go over the choices available to us in the first round. It's easy to pass on Maclin in the 4th or Peyton in the 3rd, but its bold to choose from the cream of the crop and say nay.

Listed below is the first round with potential red flags as it stands on June 24th in 12 man standard Yahoo leagues.

Name                                Potential Red Flags

Jamaal Charles                 Nagging injuries in 2014, age

Eddie Lacy                       Concussion history, time split with Starks toward middle of last season

Adrian Peterson                Rust, age

Marshawn Lynch              Heavy workload in past, violent runner, age

Le'Veon Bell                     Suspension history

Antonio Brown                 None

Rob Gronkowski               Injury history

Dez Bryant                        Contract issues

Odell Beckham Jr              Sophomore regression, hamstrings

Matt Forte                          Age, less receptions with loss of Trestman

Demarco Murray                Incredible previous year workload, injury history

Andrew Luck                     Often sacked/hit




 The world needs another Demarco Murray workload article about as much as it needs a third World War, so let's go in a different direction. Lets be daring. Let's select Odell Beckham Jr. Why? As I will explain, OBJ was the perfect player at the perfect time on the perfect team. I'm not trying to take anything away from the man, I just don't think he'll perform up to his lofty draft position, and that you can get similar production out of your second round pick.

The Perfect Team
 The 2014 Giants were flat out awful. Compiling a 6-10 record, five of those wins came against the dregs of the league. Bad teams fall behind early and generally abandon the running game. This was very much the case for Eli Manning who broke his career high with 601 attempts. The G-men were near the bottom of nearly every defensive statistic one can take pride in, and couldn't move the ball on the ground. Their dismal 3.6 yards per attempt was 30th in the league. Their terrible rushing and worse defense set up beautifully for Odell, as he was the only talented offensive player left on a team that was constantly falling behind. Reuben Randle did not play well and Larry Donnell cemented his flash in the pan status. The addition of Shane Vereen should help as Eli will have a talented pass catching HB (and underrated runner) out of the backfield. Factor in the return of Victor Cruz and one can foresee the massive targets for Odell leveling out to normal.

The Perfect Player
 The Dez's and Calvin's of the world amaze us year in and year out. Teams know they are good, gameplan around them, and yet somehow they still produce. As an unknown commodity, Beckham benefited greatly. Cue the sophomore slump. Teams know who he is now and will gameplan around him specifically. When defensive coordinators have a whole year of film on you, its incredibly how they can use it against you.  So you're thinking, well why didn't teams gameplan around him once they saw what he could do? I'm glad you asked. Let's take a look at his production starting in week 5, his first game.

Week 5 vs Atlanta 4-44-0 – A pretty normal game
Week 6 vs Philadelphia 2-28-0 – Non factor
Week 7 vs Dallas 4-34-2 – The touchdowns are impressive, but still little jumps off the page
Bye

 So, heading into week nine, coordinators have little reason to believe he is a game changing offensive juggernaut. The Dallas touchdowns aside, he has whimpered to begin his NFL career. Dallas' dirty secret from 2015 should also be mentioned at this point in time, the defense was terrible. How terrible? In 2013 the Cowboys defense was described as “historically bad” by writers all over the football universe. That defense gave up 6.1 yards per play. The 2014 division winning Cowboys? 5.8 yards per play. The reason this went largely unnoticed is solely because the Cowboys managed to keep their defense off the field. A top 3 time of possession stat (21 seconds behind #1) had them cooling off on the sidelines.  After beating this awful unit for two touchdowns on a modest 34 yards, Beckham slides into his bye week to rest those hammys.

The Perfect Time
 Our sneaky OBJ slides out of the bye supposedly healthy and ready to go. As we discussed above, coordinators still have little reason to focus an entire gameplan around this young man. For the rest of the season he would light a fire on the NFL world, and win many a fantasy player his or her championship. Lets look at how he did it


Week 9 vs Indianapolis 8-156-0
Week 10 vs Seattle 7-108-0
Week 11 vs San Fran 6-93-0

 We start off with a shootout versus Indianapolis which saw the Giants lose 40-24. OBJ performs well in what would turn out to be a 64 point slugfest, illustrating the above narrative perfectly. He racked up tons of yards in awful games by the Giants. Against Seattle he plays well, that is a great line against that team, and the same can be said for the game against San Francisco.

Week 12 vs Dallas 10-146-2
Week 13 vs Jacksonville 7-90-0
Week 14 vs Tennessee 11-130-1
Week 15 vs Washington 12-143-3
Week 16 vs St. Louis 8-148-2

  From week 12 on is where the legend was truly made and the main reason I'm ducking him this year. Again we see him annihilate a bad Cowboys defense. For this we cant knock him, after all he'll see them twice next year, but the remaining games must be taken with a grain of salt. He faces all bad teams that had been knocked out for the year and had nothing to play for. Jacksonville and Tennessee ended at 3-13 and 2-14, with the 26th and 27th overall defenses. Washington stank up the NFC East with a 4-12 record and, you guessed it, gave up a whopping 5.8 yards per play (where did we hear that number before?). The Rams hardly played better giving up 5.6 themselves. The point being that it is highly unlikely that he will see such a lucky stretch of awful teams again. A quick glance at this seasons final six games tells us the same.
 There is a very good chance that Beckham will play well this year, and I'm not here to disagree. I'm recommending avoiding him based on how fortunate his situation was last year and where he is going in this years drafts.  If you're drafting late middle the likes of Julio, Calvin, and Jordy could all be available with your second pick. Do you truly believe the second year man will outpace the likes of that trio? Is it possible that the legend of OBJ was written on the backs of the worst teams and defenses in the NFL at a most memorable time? And finally, lets not forget that he already missed this years mini camp with yet another hamstring injury. Seasoned players will tell you just how nagging and reoccurring those can be. If they act up this year, you just might be telling the guy behind you who grabbed him about the legend of Miles Austin.