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Monday, August 17, 2015

Why aren't you playing real fantasy

It's halfway through the 4th quarter in a somewhat meaningless game between the Jets and the Jaguars. As expected,  they are both terrible and the game has almost no fantasy implication.  Ryan Fitzpatrick hits Jeff Cumberland for a first down as speedy linebacker Telvin Smith comes in to make the tackle.

And noone in your league got a single point. 

Your league is lame.  You play in a league with 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, a flex, a kicker and a defense.  You are stuck in the stone age. You are playing Oregon Trail while the big boys are playing Playstation 4.

"Nuh uh! It's interesting! We switched to ppr last year! "

Ugh

Why fight progress? Do you not know the NFL? Do you not watch the games?  Do you not know who Lavonte David is?

Casual fans with casual leagues dumb down the fantasy universe.  Half of the players in the NFL play defense.  HALF. And yet, you don't have those players on your roster.  Welcome to IDP my brothers and sisters.  Instantly,  you double your roster size, lowering the luck factor ten-fold. That Telvin Smith tackle got you a point because no play is worthless in an IDP league. Every game has meaning.  Every play has meaning. 

Don't you want to play in a fantasy universe where you can have JJ Watt on your roster? Where big play sacks get you amped up the way a 35 yard completion down the sideline does? 

Of course you do.  So get your ass on the phone and text your commissioner.  Tell him or her of their leagues lameness and tell em you got the cure. 

And for the love of god make the settings similar scoring to offense. Nothing is worse than a league finally making the jump to IDP only to see the players marginalized. A 10 tackle game should be worth as much a 100 yard rusher with a TD.

So get excited for every play,  every snap. Tackles for a loss are your new completion.  Or stay in the stone age. Get your fantasy knowledge from nfl network start em sit em.

Monday, August 3, 2015

So who's your backup?


       On the list of things one cares about when preparing for their fantasy season,  who will be your backup quarterback barely registers on the Richter scale. Drafters typically care about grabbing another beer more than grabbing a qb to sit on the bench. But with leagues becoming ever more competitive and intense, this small part of your team shouldn't be taken so lightly.  Every fantasy owner will need to play a backup qb at least one game a year during their starters bye. Why not do a little homework and grab the right guy?  How many of us have seen a player notice come bye week time that their backup qb has the same bye week as their starter. How many times have we seen the starters bye week come and your bench Q has to play one of the best defenses in the league that week? How many times has it happened to you?  Well, rest easy my friend,  UFO has you covered. 
  
          Some decisions are made for you in this life.  Owners of Sam Bradford and Tom Brady have little choice but to waste a bench spot on a Sanchez or Garapollo, but most choices are not so simple.  Obvious situations aside, choosing your understudy will mostly come down to schedule.  Finding the guy that has the sweetest matchup while your starter is on his bye is paramount. Bonus points if you can identify a guy that has a soft playoff schedule should your starter go down late or runs into a tough matchup come playoff time. Luckily for you we have broken it down by(e) week and done all the work for your lazy ass.
          The following is a week by week breakdown of which starter is on a bye and who should be available to draft in the last rounds of the draft to ride your bench. Assuming you are in a 12 or 14 man league, the bottom 15ish qbs (based on current fantasy pros ADP) will be who we are focusing on today as they will be the only ones available to hold your proverbial clipboard. If you are in a 10 man league exit out of this page and reevaluate your life.



Week 4: Marcus Mariota(21), Brady(10)/Garapollo
          As we discussed above, Brady owners will likely need to have Jimmy G on standby no matter what. I can't imagine you having a great year if you dedicate 3 roster spots to quarterbacks so Brady owners just pick up a streaming Qb for the week and then drop. Mariota is already in "backup quarterback" territory. Unless you are one of those NCAA fanatics who drafts these types of qbs early, and every league has one, he is already your backup. 
Best week 4 qbs: Jay Cutler (23), Sam Bradford (17)
Cutler is dynamite in week four. He's currently the 23rd qb off the board and plays the lowly Raiders at home. Bradford is affordable at 17th and plays the Skins who are just not that good. 

Week 5: Cam Newton(7), Ryan Tannehill(13), Teddy Bridgewater(15), Geno Smith*(UDFA)
Cam and Tannehill are truly the only ones in starter territory, but I'd bet Teddy cracks that top 14 by draft time. This year is very muddled in the middle of the drafts. 
Best week 5 qbs: Joe Flacco (16), Sam Bradford(17), Jameis Winston(19), Nick Foles(24)
Nick Foles is your target here as he plays Green Bay in what will likely be a high scoring affair. The Rams will likely struggle to keep up with Rodger's n Company's high powered offense and this means pass pass pass for the Rams. Flacco vs Cleveland at home, Bradford vs the Saints and Winston vs Jacksonville are also good, albeit slightly more expensive options than Foles.

Week 6: Tony Romo(8), Derek Carr(22), Nick Foles(24), Jameis Winston(19)
Another week where the quarterbacks on byes are likely already to be your backups anyway, but for you Romo owners this week is yours to pay attention to. 
Best week 6 Qbs: 
Jay Cutler(23), Mallet/Hoyer(UDFA), Sam Bradford(17), Geno Smith(UDFA)
One of the rare occasions where I would ever recommend the likes of Smith or whoever wins the job in Houston. For their price you could draft them dead last or not at all. Playing against Jacksonville and Washington, respectively, you could even not draft a backup at all and simply drop a kicker or another useless player and just grab one for the week. Again we see Bradford with a decent matchup against the Football Giants of New York. Cutler against the Lions is also a decent bet. 

Week 7: Jay Cutler(23), Andy Dalton(27), Peyton Manning(3), Aaron Rodgers(2)
Best qbs week 7: Matt Cassel(28), Jameis Winston(19), Nick Foles(24)
This is not a great week if your starter is on a bye. The matchups are not great for the later round qbs but there is still some hope. Foles rears his goofy head again vs the Browns while Winston plays the Skins. Cassel, or whoever the fuck is slinging the rock by then gets to play Jacksonville. My only gripe with the Bills qb against Jax is it is in London and we've seen some bad football overseas. 

Week 8: Matt Cassel(28), Blake Bortles(29), Sam Bradford(17), Robert Griffin(26)
A likely breather for most players as none of these quarterbacks are really in top 12-14 territory. With the exception of Bradford, none of these players will ever creep into that area of any draft. If you have the unfortunate situation of needing a qb this week,you are likely going to suck this year, but here are a few to choose from anyway. 
If you absolutely have to: Geno Smith(UDFA), Jay Cutler(23), Jameis Winston(19)
Cutler is at home against the Vikes, Tampa Bay gets Atlanta and Geno Smith gets the Raiders. None particularly jump off the page so go with Cutler at draft time or don't draft a Q at all and stream either Geno or Jameis

Week 9: Carson Palmer(25), Joe Flacco(16), Matt Stafford(12), Mallet/Hoyer(UDFA), Alex Smith(20), Russel Wilson(4)
It's not the best week for owners of Stafford and Wilson as the options out there are not fantastic. For owners of the formerly mentioned, check out these week 9 options. 
Best qbs for week 9: Geno Smith(UDFA), Jay Cutler(23), Nick Foles(24)
Smith lining up with Jacksonville is really the only bad matchup on paper. Cutler landing San Diego and Foles vs Minnesota are your consolation prizes. 

Week 10: Matt Ryan(9), Andrew Luck(1), Philip Rivers(14), Colin Kaepernick(18)
The Bye Weeks are coming to an end and as such there are more options out there for the picking. Luck and Ryan owners have a few options to choose from. 
Best options for week 10: Nick Foles(24), Jay Cutler(23), Joe Flacco(16)
Foles and Cutler square off in what will likely be a decent matchup for either quarterback but the winner here is Joe Flacco. Joe Cool draws Jacksonville and will probably wipe the floor with them. The only big fear here is the Ravens would just run the ball once getting a lead. 

Week 11: Josh Mccown, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger 
Its a pretty meh week for owners of Brees and Big Ben but there's always some option to choose from. Being as though its the last week for byes I wanted to come up with something witty here, but then decided to just go with the list. 
Best options for week 12: Marcus Mariota(21), Blake Bortles(29), Jay Cutler(23)
Bortles and Mariota will be squaring off in what will likely be an awful game with two terrible teams long out of contention. If either quarterback shows signs of putting together a decent offense over the course of the year grab them for the week and pray if they are your only option. Once again Cutler is our winner here as he draws Denver . Chicago's D will likely not slow down Denver worth a damn and Cutler will be in full blown garbage time mode by halftime. Bonus points if Chicago is anywhere near contention at this point in the year. 

          Well there you have it guys, a week by week breakdown of who is on a bye and who you should target as your backup Q. I'm sure you noticed the same thing I noticed as I was typing up this article; Cutler and Bradford have some sweet matchups practically every week. For those of you who do not grab a top tier QB and decide to dance with lesser options, one could certainly do worse than grabbing Smokin Jay or Bradford, or both. Pair either one with a good but not great QB and you might be able to find yourself a good season in there somewhere. 
          






















Sunday, August 2, 2015

Top 5 Worst QBS To Win SB / Top 5 Best QBS TO Never Win SB



                           So here you are again arguing with your buddy about who's team has a better QB, You are a Broncos fan he is a Patriots fan. Most ignorant people will have you believe its cut and dry, Brady has 4 rings Manning only has 1 ring so clearly Brady is better, Right? Well pump your brakes that is not remotely true. When it comes to Super Bowl wins, its the number one thing any football player or fan wants for their team or themselves. But lets face it no one player in football has enough power to win or lose a game all by themselves. There are tons of variables that go into every single football game. Whether it is which team has a run game or which team has a better defense or if a team simply has Lady Luck on their side, it is not so cut and dry to just go off of Rings won. The best any only way to determine how a player compares to another is what each player has personally accomplished, seeing how they do not play all 53 positions on a team, or coaches the team, Personal stats are all you can go off of to get a true idea of who plays any position better than another.

                           For instance if your team has a mediocre QB that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in a season but the team came together and won a Superbowl vs a QB who had a stellar year number 1 QB rating but the team as whole just couldn't pull it together when they needed to, do you really think the QB whose team won the Super Bowl is better than the QB that out played ever other QB that season? Of course not. No one man wins or loses a game. Football is the true definition of a team sport every piece needs to work together for greatness, and unfortunately some of the greatest player that have ever graced the field were not as fortunate as some of the worst players to ever play to have a well rounded team to go all the way.


Tools For Measuring Quarterback Skill & Ability


                            We are going to stick with the Quarterback position seeing as its the number one most debated position in the league. We are not going to talk about the intangibles that are completely out of the Quarterback's hands, such as win loss records since we already established no one man can lose or win a game. We are strictly going to stick to the facts, Who plays the position better according to official stats kept by the NFL.

  1. Quarterback Passing Rating - one of the most accurate stats in the NFL for measuring how well a person plays the Quarterback position. The term is defined as such "Passer rating (also known as quarterback rating, QB rating, or passing efficiency in college football) is a measure of the performance of passers, primarily quarterbacks, in American football and Canadian football." The NFL gets the rating from a series of statistics, Completion percentage, TD - INT Ratio, Attempts and so on. This is the overall standard on who plays the position the best and there is really zero argument to discredit it. The only thing you would want to point out is a QB that has a better career QB rating vs another, is the amount of years played. If a QB who only played 4 season has a slightly better rating than a QB that played 14 years you can have an argument that the 4 year sample is not enough to go off of especially if the QB was a starter vs not a starter his whole career.
  2. TD - INT Ratio - This one is huge in my book if you have a QB throwing way more TDs than INTs you have a skilled quarterback and this stat can determine which of the QBs can make better decisions and even use the imaginary clutch term if you would like.
  3. Completion % - This is real simple too. Is you QB an efficient passer or is he just throwing it up and praying for the best. This stat tells you it all in black and white.
  4. Yards Per Play - Now this one can be a little bit iffy just because if you have a QB like Brees who is just dumping it off to his Running Back and gaining 80 yds vs a Romo hitting Dez 60 yds down the field the stats are a bit skewed but can be corrected by viewing these stats vs average YAC (yards after contact) of their receivers. None the less big plays are a sign of a great player. 
                             All in all, every one of these stats are important and 2-4 are all factors in Quarterback Passing Rating. Leaving QBR as the official stat of the NFL to determine who has the most skill and plays the absolute best at the Quarterback position. Most ignorant people will still argue that it doesn't matter though, all that matters is the championship, and i agree to an extent. We all know the only reason these guys play is to be the best and the money of course. But it does matter when you want to see who plays the position better. Rings do not mean you play the position better than another and there are many players who have proven it. Here are the 5 worst QBS to win a Super Bowl and a few of their career stats, proving just because you have a ring or two doesn't mean you are good.

TOP 5 Worst Quarterbacks To Win a Super Bowl


5. Eli Manning

2 Rings - Career QBR - 82.4 - Career TD - 259 / INT - 185


4. Ken Stabler

1 Ring - Career QBR - 75.3 - Career TD - 194 / INT -222


3. Jim Plunkett

2 Rings - Career QBR - 67.5 - Career TD - 164 / INT - 198

2. Trent Dilfer

1 Ring - Career QBR - 70.2 - Career TD - 113 / INT - 129

1. Joe Nameth

1 Ring - Career QBR - 65.5 - Career TD - 173 / INT - 220


                       Luckily for these guys they had great rounded teams to carry them far in their career in some cases carry them twice to the promised land. Not discrediting their rings just saying clearly they are not the focal of why they made it and won. On the flip side you have some amazing players that have done everything they can to make it all the way but the teams they are with were just not good enough to cut it, So here are the top 5 QBS to never win a Ring.



Top 5 Quarterbacks To Never Win A Super Bowl


5. Matt Ryan

Playoff Record W-1 / L-4 - Career QBR - 91.1 - Career TD - 181 / INT - 91

4. Donovan Mcnabb

Playoff Record W-9 / L-7 - Career QBR - 85.6 - Career TD - 234 / INT - 117

3. Jim Kelly

Playoff Record W-9 / L-8 - Career QBR - 84.4 - Career TD - 237 / INT - 175

2. Dan Marino

Playoff Record W- 8 / L - 10 - Career QBR - 86.4 - Career TD - 420 / INT - 252

1. Tony Romo

Playoff Record W-2 / L-4 - Career QBR - 97.6 - Career TD - 242 / Career INT - 110


                                 Que the haters, I know the haters will be crawling out of the wood work seeing Romo number 1 on the top 5 not to win, but 2nd all time QB rating in history is nothing to sneeze at considering how bad the rest of his team has been the majority of his career especially his defense. But just like the rest of the guys on this list he has done everything possible to win the big one but it goes back to being a team game. If you wish to be foolish enough to say any of the 5 from the list of ring winners is better than the 5 not to win that's your opinion, but its not fact. Skill is not measured by Rings its measured by performance and these 5 guys preformed at the elite level every chance they have had. But haters just keep in mind fact outweigh opinions everyday.